Paradise Valley Real Estate – Predictions 2024

I have always found economist predictions interesting. Especially because, over the years I have never found them to be accurate. Paradise Valley Real estate predictions tend to be a favorite.  The article below illustrates just how inaccurate economic “experts” can be. And do you remember Phoenix Home Prices in 2011?  Just 13 years ago. I share here, lessons of the past and a look at how economist saw the future of the Housing market in 2019. When clients call me for “real estate forecast”, I will usually encourage reviewing real estate’s most current trends and compare that to all historic and current data available.  For a look at predictions i.e trends for 2024  Click here to an article on this site. As a Realtor, I specialize in Paradise Valley and Scottsdale so you will get the latest insights and accurate information from a respected and trusted source.

Paradise Valley Pricing Predictions – Best Lessons

RE-Post – From February 2019 * Most economists expected home prices to rise around 5% to 7% this year.  Before rising at around 3% over the next few years. The economist were only off by 103%.  Home price increases in recent years have been driven primarily by supply shortages based on demand created by a healthy economy and low interest rates. Some economists have said that prices could continue to outpace income or rent growth .
To be sure, U.S. home prices have been especially difficult to predict in recent years. Many analysts prematurely called a bottom in 2008 or 2009.  And others called for continued declines in 2012, after prices had started rising. (Post notes – from 2019) Now economist can only guess when home prices will stabilize.

BELOW IS INTERESTING – FOR HISTORICAL REVIEW -More predictions from 2019

Analysts Chris Flanagan and Gregory Fitter concede that their view is “well out of consensus.” They say that U.S. home prices, after being undervalued relative to household incomes by around 6% at the end of 2011, have now rebounded to levels that are 9.7% overvalued. Their model uses Case-Shiller home-price index.

FROM ANALYST IN 2019 – This is priceless considering what has happened in last 3 years. Read Below

They further estimate that home prices will rise another 3% annually in each of the next two years. Well below the 9.5% annualized growth rate since the end of 2011, when the market hit bottom. That would leave prices around 12% above the “fair value” level implied by household incomes. The model goes on to forecasts, modest declines in the following years. Resulting in net annualized home-price gains that are flat through the middle of 2022. And ergo, why I suggest not putting too much value on ‘projections”

Paradise Valley Home Prices Flat – Interesting Forecast

So does this mean U.S. housing markets (2019) are in another bubble? If it is, it’s much less pronounced than in 2006.  When home prices peaked at levels that were overvalued by nearly 59%. Resulting in price declines of nearly 35% over six years. Flanagan and Fitter say that the regulatory framework enacted since the financial crisis in 2008 should largely prevent a return to the loose-lending standards that inflated the housing bubble. Against that backdrop, flat home prices between 2016 and 2022 “seems to us to be a fantastic outcome and exactly what policymakers had hoped for when establishing the new regulatory framework,” they write.
They also point to recent home-price indexes that show that the pace of increases has already slowed. Suggesting that the post-crisis boom in home prices witnessed over the last two years “is most likely over.” A new period of “exceptionally low home-price growth” in which prices will rise by just 1% a year, on average, over the next eight years “most likely has started,” they write.

One of points in sharing this article and review is we cannot time the market. The best time to buy a home when you need one or because you’ve worked hard and richly deserve and can afford a second or third home as a retreat. The exception to the above is, IF your income is uncertain. Then Yes – be careful and be mindful of when and even if to buy. The real estate market ALWAYS goes higher than it previously was… but granted, there can be some long waits in-between.

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